Various AI doom pathways (and how likely they are)
midwitalignment.substack.com
The current discourse on AI extinction appears highly polarized. Consider for example, this survey. If disagreements about AI causing extinction were caused by small disagreements about various probabilities, we would expect answers to follow a normal distribution. A strong bi-modal distribution like this suggests that people are using fundamentally different methods to estimate P(Doom), rather than disagreeing on minor details.
Various AI doom pathways (and how likely they are)
Various AI doom pathways (and how likely they…
Various AI doom pathways (and how likely they are)
The current discourse on AI extinction appears highly polarized. Consider for example, this survey. If disagreements about AI causing extinction were caused by small disagreements about various probabilities, we would expect answers to follow a normal distribution. A strong bi-modal distribution like this suggests that people are using fundamentally different methods to estimate P(Doom), rather than disagreeing on minor details.